Climate change is undoubtedly the most pressing issue in the world. Everyone talks about it, some believe that the climate is changing, others don’t. Some fear the consequences of Climate Change, while others don’t even think the climate can change so badly to affect us negatively.
Scientific researches have proven that the climate has been changing and is changing so badly this time around due to global warming which is caused by anthropogenic activities.
Despite the numerous negative effects of global warming, some people still think Climate change is a hoax and lacks enough scientific evidence. Some of their reasons are;
- The climate has a natural cycle
Yes, the climate has a natural cycle; it has been changing from very hot temperatures to very cold temperatures. However, what is of serious concern to scientists is the fact that the changes we are experiencing now are so fast compared to what had been happening in some 50 years ago. The role of “palaeo” scientists, like Mike, is to check whether recent changes look like past natural cycles. They don’t! The changes in the last 40 years are too big, and too fast. This is a serious concern that we must all re-look at because the Earth is a common home we all share.
2. Climate change isn’t that bad, life will find a way
The fact is that the rate of climate change is putting huge ecological stress on our environments. Think of the noble oak tree, if you will. In the past, if its environment became too hot, a tree would have simply dropped its acorns a few metres north each winter, and over hundreds of years move 50 miles north where it was cooler. The problem is that now, with humans having urbanized so much of the environment, that acorn will likely hit concrete before reaching its promised land. The same goes for bugs, small mammals and fish… there’s simply nowhere to go and no route to get there.“Even humans have got themselves stuck in areas that are becoming uninhabitable,” says Mike. “You try selling your house if it’s on a predicted future flood plain. If you can’t quit your mortgage, you’re stuck there with the oaks and the squirrels.”
3. Things are getting hotter. Have we thought of how much it rains now?
The sun heats the planet, the heat evaporates water. Vapour gathers as clouds. Rain falls from clouds. In short: the hotter, the wetter. Recent research from the University of Hull into Libyan weather patterns over the last 10,000 years has born this to be true, with rainfall increasing alongside a rise in average yearly temperature.
4. The models used to measure climate change are unreliable
The models are experiments, not oracles!. But they’re the same models that predict your daily weather and, bar the odd missed shower, they’re not predicting snow in summer. In fact, the first climate prediction came in 1901, from a scientist who wanted to judge how much coal he’d have to burn to start a vineyard in Sweden. With just a few scribbles on a piece of paper, he predicted how burning different levels of CO2would warm the planet over time. Amazingly, and worryingly, his prediction is in line with today’s measurements.
5. There is no scientific consensus
“This hasn’t been true for over a decade,” says Mike. “The problem is that society gets climate information from the media, not from scientists. And the media, in an effort to seem unbiased, often line up one climate scientist against one denier to debate their point. But that doesn’t mean that the scientific community is split 50/50 on climate change. Actually, it’s more like 97/3.”
What you need to know about Global warming
An increase in greenhouse gases is the main cause for global warming. Until 1950 nature had more impact on the climate than human beings. The fast increase of the global temperature after 1950 can only be explained by human activity. According to the IPCC there is 90% chance global warming in the past 50 years has been driven by an increase in greenhouse gases, of which 56% is from CO2 emissions. CO2 is released when we burn fossil fuels such as oil, natural gas and coal. There is hard evidence that current CO2 concentrations in the air are the highest they have been for over 800,000 years, and most probably for over 60 million years.
The Paris Climate Agreement
The Paris Climate Agreement, developed in 2015 is meant to limit global warming to 2 or 1.5 degrees, prepare the world for a changing climate and ensure a clear communication approach. To meet this target, we need to do everything we can to make our energy supply, industry, transport, food, agriculture and forestry cleaner and more energy efficient. 185 of the 197 UN members have signed the agreement, including The Netherlands. In the Netherlands, it has been transposed into the Klimaatakkoord.
CO2 emissions still rising
But things are not going according to plan. In the Netherlands, we are aiming to emit 49% less CO2 2030 and 25% less by 2020. As things stand we’ve reached 21% and sadly look set to miss our target. In the last three months of 2018 we emitted more CO2 than in the same period in 2017. The main culprits are transport, households, agriculture and industry. Only the electricity sector made progress. External forces are now putting pressure on the Dutch government to act, with the NGO Urgenda suing the government, to force it to take adequate measures to reduce emissions and protect the Dutch people from the impact of climate change. The sad news is that, at a global level, CO2emissions rose by 1.7% in 2018. If we want to limit global warming, we need to reduce our energy use and switch to using clean renewable energy from the sun, wind and water. For personal and heavy transport, heating and cooling of our houses, we need to change to electricity.
We need to speed up the energy transition
In DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook 2018 we predict that even with 70% of electricity in 2050 coming from wind and the sun we will not meet the Paris climate targets. The only way to mitigate the impact of climate change is for all sectors of society, including industry, transport and the public, to make drastic changes.
According to the United Nations, 1 trillion US dollars a year is needed in clean energy investments and climate adaptation. This seems a lot. But in 2016, USD 1.7 trillion was invested in the global energy industry, of which 70% was for fossil fuels. So, USD 1 trillion for clean energy should be feasible, considering the huge advantages of cleaner air, food security, liveable cities and better public health. If we act now, we save lives and money that we would normally have to spend on the negative impact of climate change.
The inhabitants of the island of Ameland are aware, more than anyone else, what the impact of climate change could be. As such, they plan to be energy-neutral and self-sufficient by 2020. If they can achieve this, it will set a best practice benchmark for the rest of The Netherlands on how to make a transition to a clean energy future. I for one, hopes this beautiful island will exist for a long time.
If you care about climate and energy discussion based on facts and not on fake news and emotions, then please share this. Also, do your best to stop greenhouse gas emissions.
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Credit: Professor Mike Rogerson, University of Hull