The Russia-Ukraine conflict is a paradigm shift for the energy transition and global climate action. Continued progress will be best served by near-term appeals to self-interest.
It is a very long way from Glasgow to Kyiv, and it seems a very long time ago that UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson told the UK Parliament that the COP26 talks, which concluded in the Scottish city last November, had “succeed[ed] in keeping 1.5°C alive”. However, events in Ukraine promise profound and long-term impacts on the global effort to address climate change. It is imperative that advocates for climate action make a cold-eyed assessment of the changed landscape.
Vladimir Putin’s aggression has implications much more immediate and far-reaching than the success or otherwise of the Paris Agreement. Many Ukrainians and Russians will be killed. Despite the increasing isolation of Russia’s economy, growth, inflation and sentiment will all be negatively affected. Energy prices are already soaring.
In theory, and over the longer term, high fossil energy prices help to support the financial attractiveness of clean energy generation. In the near term, high gas prices are proving a boon for coal-fired power generation. They also make it more difficult for energy users to find the cash to invest in cleaner alternatives.
High energy prices also provide grist for those who argue that the costs of the net-zero transition represent an additional and unnecessary burden at a time when many households and businesses are struggling to pay their energy bills.
Credit: Mark Nicholls, Army Technology
